Experts tell “Voice of Emirates”: A war of attrition in Mali aims to undermine the military council

April 25, 2026, marked the culmination of this coordination with coordinated attacks on major cities, culminating in the capital, in collaboration with the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA).

Emmanuel Dupuy, president of the European Institute for Security and Foresight, believes that Mali is at a dangerous historical turning point. The joint offensive by Jama’at Nasr al-Islam and the Coordination of Azawad Movements (CSP) resulted in the capture of the strategic city of Kidal. It also led to the withdrawal of the Malian army and Russian Wagner Group mercenaries from key cities such as Gao, Sévaré, and Mopti.

Dupuy notes that the capital, Bamako, is now under siege, with a final ultimatum issued to the military junta led by Assimi Goïta to relinquish power. He believes the country’s future hangs in the balance between three figures: Iyad Ag Ghali, Abbas Ag Intalla, and Imam Mahmoud Dicko.

The groups’ current strategy relies on an economic blockade, strangling the capital by cutting off fuel supplies and main roads. Dupuy describes this as a “Kabul scenario,” where cities collapse one after another due to the internal decay of the regime. All these factors have also contributed to the failure of the G5 Sahel alliance to provide meaningful support.

For her part, Dr. Akila Dbeichi, director of the French Center for Studies, explained to “Sawt Al Emarat” that Iyad Ag Ghali’s ability to completely “reshape the state” appears limited given the regional and international support for the Malian state and the tribal complexities. However, Dbeichi asserts that his influence lies in weakening state control and redrawing the balance of power through “continuous pressure” in rural and border areas.

Regarding comparisons with other models, Debechi distinguishes between the experience of Iyad Ag Ghali and that of the Taliban in Afghanistan, which controlled an entire state, or that of Ahmed al-Sharaa in Syria, which faces regional challenges. With this approach continuing, Bamako appears to be facing a complex challenge spanning security, legitimacy, and the economy. Amid these circumstances, there are expectations that the military will be forced to negotiate through intermediaries such as Togo or Morocco, while warnings persist that this threat could spread to Niger and Burkina Faso.