Muscat, Oman – Well-informed Yemeni sources revealed to Voice Of Emirates that a final agreement has been reached in the Omani capital, Muscat. The agreement stipulates the release of prominent Islah Party leader (the Muslim Brotherhood’s arm in Yemen), Mohammed Qahtan, as part of a large-scale prisoner exchange deal. This deal includes approximately 2,900 detainees from various factions, under UN auspices.
According to the details of the deal, Qahtan, who has been held captive since April 2015, will be released in exchange for the government and the coalition releasing 1,700 Houthi fighters. The Houthis, in turn, will release 1,200 detainees, including Saudi and Sudanese soldiers. Observers see this move as going beyond humanitarian considerations, revealing behind-the-scenes political understandings.
Mohammed Qahtan: The mastermind returns to the scene
Mohammed Qahtan, 70, is considered the strongman and chief political strategist of the Islah Party, having served as head of its political department and spokesperson for the Joint Meeting Parties.
His abduction and enforced disappearance for over a decade in Sana’a prisons was the most prominent point of contention. However, the Houthis’ sudden agreement to release him now raises serious questions about the “political price” being paid.
Implications of rapprochement: An alliance of “opposites” against the South
Political analysts believe that the timing of Qahtan’s release is not unrelated to recent political developments. Rather, it reinforces the hypothesis of a “tactical rapprochement” between the Houthis and the Muslim Brotherhood.
These concerns are based on several indicators. This move coincides with statements by Yemeni Deputy Foreign Minister Mustafa al-Numan, in which he suggested the necessity of an alliance between the “unionists” (the Muslim Brotherhood and the legitimate government) and the Houthis to confront the Southern Transitional Council’s project.
Recently, there have also been publicized meetings in Sana’a. These meetings brought together Houthi leader Ali al-Qahoum with Muslim Brotherhood leaders such as (Fath al-Azab and Mansour al-Zindani), under the banner of “strengthening the internal front and partnership”.
Observers noted a mutual courtship between the two sides following the events in Gaza. Brotherhood leaders praised the Houthi operations in the Red Sea, and some considered this a “bridge” to resuming field coordination.
Warnings of a repeat of the 2011 scenario
Yemeni politicians recall the brief “honeymoon” between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Houthis in 2011 during the protests in Tahrir Square, which ultimately ended with the Houthi coup and the marginalization of their former partners. Observers warn that the resurgence of this alliance today, whether under regional auspices or driven by the need to confront the Southern Transitional Council, poses a direct threat to the liberated areas and jeopardizes the security of the south and the wider region.
While the Islah Party celebrates the return of its “mastermind,” southern forces are cautiously awaiting the outcome of this rapprochement. These forces believe that turning the prisoner exchange into a tool for forging “northern-northern” alliances could lead to an explosion of violence on the ground and return the Yemeni crisis to square one.
