Washington, DC – In an analytical piece published in The Washington Post, journalist Marc Thiessen warned that Tehran might escalate the political cost of war for US President Donald Trump. This could be done by targeting energy facilities or US forces ahead of the midterm congressional elections scheduled for November.
Iranian capabilities remain despite the strikes
Thissen explained that despite the significant losses it suffered during recent US military operations, Iran still possesses sufficient capabilities to threaten energy facilities in the Gulf states and US bases in the region. It can also threaten ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. He suggested that Tehran might exploit these capabilities to drive up global oil prices or directly target US forces. It could also attempt to force Washington back into war before the elections.
Ongoing US economic blockade
According to the newspaper, Trump has spent the past six months tightening the economic blockade on Iran and significantly reducing its oil exports. He has also tightened control over shipping in the Strait of Hormuz by escorting oil tankers. Furthermore, he has vowed to impose what he called the harshest economic sanctions on any entity that does business with the Islamic Republic.
Three escalation scenarios
Thissen suggested that targeting oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia or Qatar is among the most prominent options available to Tehran. This could lead to disruptions in oil supplies and a surge in energy prices before the elections, damaging the political standing of Trump and his Republican Party. He cited a Wall Street Journal report stating that Washington’s Arab allies had provided intelligence indicating Iran’s readiness to escalate the conflict. The memo outlined three possible scenarios: targeting regional energy infrastructure to drive up oil prices; attacking US forces to compel Trump to launch a military response; or attempting a terrorist attack within the United States or against one of its allies.
A call for a preemptive strike
Thiessen concluded his memo by urging the Trump administration not to wait for a potential Iranian response, but to launch a decisive attack targeting the Iranian leadership, its economic infrastructure, and its nuclear facilities. He also warned that any Iranian “October surprise” would compel Washington to resume large-scale military operations regardless.
