Cairo, Egypt – Mounir Adib, a researcher specializing in extremist groups and national security, commented on the recent US operation against ISIS strongholds in Syria. He stated that there are 10 indicators of this, including the recent increase in the group’s operations. This comes amidst a regional preoccupation with other issues.
Adib added in exclusive statements to “Sawt Al Emarat”: “The first of these indicators is the rise in ISIS operations, which is evident from the recent operation in Palmyra less than a week ago, in which three Americans were killed.”
He explained that the second factor was the increase in ISIS operations from 121 in 2023 to 294 in 2024. The third was ISIS’s success in carrying out a significant operation in 2025, specifically in June, after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. The attack targeted a Coptic Orthodox church and resulted in approximately 25 deaths.
The fourth indicator, according to Adib, is the fluid situation within Syria, which is behind the expected increase in ISIS operations in the coming period. The fifth indicator is that the number of ISIS fighters in Syria is estimated to be between 2,500 and 7,000, according to American estimates.
He pointed out that the sixth factor was the impact of the US war in Eastern Europe, specifically in Russia, more than two years prior, on the international coalition. Similarly, the Israeli war in the Middle East, particularly in the Gaza Strip, Iran, Lebanon, and elsewhere, had distracted Washington from confronting ISIS, which had begun to expand significantly.
The seventh point is that the American operation was conducted with the assistance of Jordanian forces. Using its fighter jets, it employed 100 precision-guided missiles to strike the targets.
He continued: The eighth point remains the real confrontation with ISIS through operational strikes on the ground. This requires roles for the Syrian security forces. The ninth point is countering the resurgence of ISIS operations coinciding with Christmas celebrations in several European countries.
Adib concluded by stating that intelligence estimates suggest ISIS cells that could become active in the coming period may number up to 25,000 fighters. This could spell a harsh winter for the organization.
