Athens, Greece – In a paradox reflecting the complexities of the energy transition, data from the European Agency for Cooperation between Energy Regulators (ACER) revealed a significant increase in Russian gas imports to EU countries since the beginning of 2026. Despite the implementation of a package of European regulations aimed at gradually restricting these supplies, imports have continued to rise.
Indicators that contradict the European roadmap
The agency’s latest report shows that Russian gas imports via pipeline rose by 7% between January and May 2026 compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports increased by 11%. This rise occurred despite the European Union’s implementation of the first and second phases of its RepowerEU initiative. This initiative prohibits imports of Russian gas under short-term contracts signed after specific dates in 2025 and 2026.
By the end of May, the EU’s reliance on Russian gas had reached 12% of total demand. While this is still significantly lower than pre-Russian invasion levels (40-45%), the current trajectory indicates an increase, not a decrease. ACER attributes this to adjustments made by stakeholders in their contract portfolios and their proactive preparations ahead of the “mainstream” embargo (long-term contracts) coming into effect for pipelines in early 2027. For liquefied natural gas (LNG), the embargo is scheduled to begin in September of the same year.
Radical reorganization of gas flows
European markets anticipate a radical shift in the gas flow landscape starting in 2027. This is underscored by the success of Greek efforts to close the “back door” for Russian gas. Non-Azerbaijani gas imports to Bulgaria via Turkey have decreased by 65%. Greece, one of only three countries (along with Hungary and Slovakia) still relying on long-term contracts, saw a decline in Russian gas imports during the first four months of 2026. Furthermore, reliance on US liquefied natural gas (LNG) and Azerbaijani gas via the Trans-Azerbaijani Pipeline (TAP) has increased.
Vertical passage: the next bet
With the move away from TurkStream, Greek infrastructure, particularly the Revithosa and Alexandroupolis terminals, stands out as a vital link in the “vertical gas corridor.” This corridor is considered a strategic alternative to bridge the gap that will be left by Russian supplies (estimated at between 16-26 billion cubic meters).
The energy sector is awaiting the results of the first auction for annual capacity allocation in this corridor, scheduled for July 6. This auction is seen as a crucial test of Europe’s readiness to create a competitive and independent energy environment. Estimates suggest the need to increase the corridor’s capacity and extend its routes towards the Western Balkans. In parallel, other vital projects, such as Romania’s Neptune Deep field, must be developed to ensure European energy security in the post-Russian gas era.
