London, Voice of the Emirates – In an in-depth analytical report entitled “The Shadow War,” the British newspaper “The Guardian” shed light on the phenomenon of increasing reliance on “agents” in the Middle East.
The newspaper stressed that this strategy still represents a strong temptation for Iran, Israel, and the United States.
This is despite regional trends aimed at disarming militias and strengthening state sovereignty.
Tehran and the reliance on proxies
The Guardian report indicates that Iran’s attempts to expand its influence remain a focus of Washington’s attention.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently emphasized that any agreement
with Tehran must include a cessation of support for Hamas, Hezbollah, Iraqi factions, and the Houthis.
However, Western analysts believe that despite the recent difficulties faced by Hezbollah,
Tehran remains strategically committed to rebuilding its network of proxies.
They consider the current setbacks a temporary phase.
In this context, Hanin Ghaddar, a researcher at the Washington Institute,
explained that the Revolutionary Guard sees a critical need to regain control over the decisions of its proxies.
In contrast, other groups, such as the Houthis in Yemen, are showing
a greater tendency toward autonomy in decision-making, despite their close alliance with Tehran.
In Iraq, armed factions are adopting a more cautious approach to direct escalation with Washington.
This is due to their vulnerability to retaliatory strikes and the complexities of internal Iraqi politics.
Failure of alternative strategies
On the other hand, the United States and Israel were not immune to this approach.
The Guardian revealed the failure of efforts to employ armed groups
among ethnic minorities within Iran to destabilize the regime.
The report also touched upon a US plan that had been shelved for 20 years.
The plan aimed to use Kurdish fighters to infiltrate northwestern Iran.
This plan faced field and political obstacles, most notably the rejection by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Furthermore, there was a sense of Kurdish disillusionment following the events in Syria.
In Syria, Israel did not limit its support to the Kurds. Its intelligence activities extended
to supporting Druze militias to resist the consolidation of the Syrian government’s power.
As for Gaza, Israel’s attempts to build Palestinian militias as an alternative to Hamas have yielded modest results.
Intelligence expert Michael Milstein confirmed that these groups lack
popular support and cannot alter the strategic situation on the ground.
Strategic risks
The Guardian report arrives at a difficult paradox: while regional calls for the disarmament of militias are growing to address
the increasing instability in Syria, Libya, Sudan, and elsewhere, the “temptation” to use proxies remains.
This method remains relatively inexpensive for managing conflicts.
However, the report concludes with a warning from Milstein: “You can’t rely on proxies.
They are not only useless, they are harmful,” emphasizing that this strategy has often proven to be a double-edged sword.
The use of proxies only complicates crises rather than resolving them.
