Washington, DC – The US news website Axios reported on Thursday, May 28, 2026, that the Trump administration is on high alert in anticipation of a possible collapse of the Cuban government as early as this summer.
The report, citing US officials, stated that the administration has already conducted simulations of new military scenarios. It also indicated that these simulations aim to address any chaos that might result from the regime’s collapse on the island.
“gradual strangulation” policy
Commenting on current trends, a senior government official described the US strategy as “accelerating the collapse of the regime.” He clarified, however, that the administration is not seeking to completely dismantle the government overnight. Rather, it is pursuing a policy of “gradual strangulation” or a “gradual process” to pressure the regime in Havana.
This move comes at a time when Cuba is experiencing a severe economic crisis, the worst in decades. The crisis has been exacerbated by the US naval blockade, which has led to critical shortages of fuel and energy.
Despite these pressures, the Trump administration is believed to favor a peaceful transition. However, it maintains military options as a contingency plan should the situation spiral out of control, and would use them if the country descends into chaos.
Various pressure tools
For his part, another official indicated that Trump is determined to explore all available options. He emphasized that Washington has a full arsenal of tools at its disposal, particularly in the area of economic sanctions. In addition, a further package of measures is currently being prepared.
These developments come amid a continuing US escalation against Havana. This escalation recently included indictments against former Cuban President Raúl Castro. The US military presence in the Caribbean has also increased, including the arrival of the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz in the region.
The American position and fears of intervention
Despite repeated threats of military intervention, the White House continues to insist that its first choice remains a diplomatic agreement. However, senior officials—most notably Secretary of State Marco Rubio—have expressed doubts about the possibility of reaching a settlement with the current leadership in Cuba.
While warnings are mounting that the situation in Cuba is no longer “sustainable,” attention remains focused on developments on the ground in the coming months.
Analysts believe that Washington is working to build a political and legal framework to justify any future military action. They consider the regime in Havana a threat to US national security due to its alliances with US adversaries. Meanwhile, President Trump faces other regional and international challenges that will require him to carefully prioritize his actions in the second half of 2026.
