- The “election” narrative and its source: a leak without public documentation
- Official silence… and what the constitution says about the transitional phase
- The “Qom” strike and the message of war to the Supreme Leader’s selection chamber
- Trump and the “new guide” file: From the inside… but the “worse” is possible
- Why does the name Mojtaba Khamenei provoke such heightened sensitivity?
- Where is the story headed now?
Dubai/Tehran – Speculation is mounting regarding the identity of Iran’s new Supreme Leader. This comes after the Supreme Leader’s Persian-language website announced the death of Ali Khamenei, describing it as a “martyrdom.” The statement was attributed in part to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. Furthermore, the statement also blamed the United States and Israel for the attack.
Meanwhile, Iran International reported that it had obtained information from “informed sources.” The information indicated that the Assembly of Experts elected Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader “under pressure” from the Revolutionary Guard. Other media outlets also picked up the story and repeated it with varying degrees of certainty. This includes a report by the Ukrinform news agency. Notably, Ukrinform cited the same channel.
The “election” narrative and its source: a leak without public documentation
The most widely circulated piece of information in recent hours remains attributed to Iran International. The channel reported a vote within the Assembly of Experts in favor of Mojtaba Khamenei. Furthermore, it suggests that the Revolutionary Guard played a significant role in expediting the decision.
However, this account is not yet supported by an official statement published in the name of the Assembly of Experts or the text of a public resolution. For this reason, it remains in the category of “unofficial reports.” This is especially true in a matter whose institutions are accustomed to a high degree of secrecy.
Official silence… and what the constitution says about the transitional phase
According to widely circulated explanations of the succession mechanism, the Assembly of Experts is constitutionally tasked with selecting the Supreme Leader. Simultaneously, the country is being governed temporarily through transitional arrangements until a decision is reached. The Associated Press indicated that the Assembly of Experts “must choose a new leader as soon as possible.” This information comes at a time when details of the internal deliberations remain highly confidential.
Inside Iran, Persian media outlets quoted the Guardian Council as reiterating that the Supreme Leader is chosen by the Assembly of Experts “in accordance with the constitution.” Notably, this was done without announcing a specific name.
The “Qom” strike and the message of war to the Supreme Leader’s selection chamber
Another factor adding to the ambiguity is that Israel announced it had targeted a building in Qom used by the Assembly of Experts. The strike was intended to disrupt Tehran’s ability to coordinate at a sensitive time of transition. Meanwhile, The Washington Post, citing the Fars news agency, reported that the site had been evacuated beforehand. As a result, no casualties were reported.
If these findings are accurate, they reflect that the “succession process” is no longer a purely internal matter. Rather, it has become part of a broader struggle. In this struggle, the warring parties are attempting to influence the very balance of power.
Trump and the “new guide” file: From the inside… but the “worse” is possible
In Washington, US President Donald Trump did not publicly endorse any particular candidate. However, he outlined his approach to the succession. The Associated Press quoted him as saying that it would be best if the leader of Iran after the war came “from within” the regime or the country. He also asserted that many potential candidates had been “killed” during the fighting.
In other remarks reported by CBS, Trump said he was prepared to talk to the “new leadership” in Iran after Khamenei’s death. This indicates he was leaving a political window open despite the ongoing strikes.
Meanwhile, Trump, according to The Guardian, warned that Iran could end up with a new leader “just as bad as the previous one.” He described this as “the worst-case scenario.” This could happen if the change does not lead to a genuine transformation in the nature of the regime.
Why does the name Mojtaba Khamenei provoke such heightened sensitivity?
The mention of Mojtaba Khamenei’s name is not new in succession discussions. However, if it becomes a formal declaration, it will present the regime with a symbolic test regarding the image of “succession” in a state founded after 1979 on the critique of hereditary monarchy. Background information and published biographies indicate that Mojtaba Khamenei is a cleric with considerable influence within the ruling circles. Nevertheless, his public presence in official positions is limited compared to the weight attributed to him behind the scenes.
Where is the story headed now?
The situation, as of the time of this report, unfolds along two parallel lines: the first, confirmed by official Iranian sources regarding Khamenei’s death through a statement published on the Supreme Leader’s office website; and the second, reporting on the “election” of Mojtaba Khamenei, primarily from Iran International and subsequent reports. This contrasts with the absence of a clear official announcement by the relevant state institutions naming the new Supreme Leader. With the ongoing war and the targeting of sites linked to decision-making institutions, the coming days appear poised for either a swift resolution or a prolonged period of silence dictated by security considerations. Meanwhile, regional and international capitals are closely watching. They want to see whether this “election” will solidify the state’s course or open the door to a new internal conflict.
