Caracas, Venezuela – In the aftermath of the devastating double earthquake that struck Venezuela, models from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have revealed shocking estimates of the scale of the disaster. The models predict that the final death toll could reach 10,000. This event is the most powerful to hit the country in over a century.
Rare “double earthquake”.
Venezuela experienced two consecutive earthquakes measuring 7.2 and 7.5 on the Richter scale, less than 40 seconds apart. Scientists classify this phenomenon as a “double earthquake,” a rare occurrence that happens when a section of a fault breaks. The residual pressure is then immediately transferred to other sections, generating two tremors of equal intensity. This type of earthquake is more destructive because the second tremor strikes buildings that were already damaged or weakened by the first.
Forecasting models and PAGER system
Scientists base their assessment on the automated PAGER system, which analyzes earthquake depth, population density, and infrastructure vulnerability.
The model’s statistical data indicates a 39% probability of 1,000 to 10,000 casualties. There is also a 37% probability of 10,000 to 100,000 deaths.
In addition to the human cost, economic losses are estimated at 1% to 4% of Venezuela’s GDP. This represents a severe blow to the country’s infrastructure.
Field challenges
Although current official reports indicate 32 deaths and more than 700 injuries, authorities emphasize that these figures are preliminary and not final, given the inaccessibility of some affected areas, such as La Guaira near the capital, Caracas. Venezuela lies in a tectonically active region at the meeting point of the Caribbean and South American plates. The earthquake resulted from a shallow-slip fault, which moves horizontally rather than colliding vertically. The country is now on high alert, with scientific warnings of continued aftershocks. These tremors could cause further collapses of dilapidated buildings. All eyes remain on relief efforts as specialists face the challenge of managing this complex crisis. Venezuela has been placed at the center of one of the worst natural disasters in its modern history.
