Washington, DC – Gold prices recovered on Tuesday, rebounding after hitting a two-week low in the previous session. This recovery was driven by renewed demand for the precious metal as a safe haven, amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, and continued cautious anticipation of crucial US inflation data.
Market and metals performance
By 10:11 Moscow time, gold futures for August delivery (COMEX) had risen 0.60% to $4,030.50 per ounce. Spot gold also climbed 0.53% to settle at $4,023.73 per ounce, after earlier falling to $3,993.83. Gold had recorded its biggest daily drop in over a month on Monday, falling 3%.
Inflation and Federal Reserve policy
Global markets are closely watching the release of the June 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data later today. This data is crucial as it could provide clues to the future direction of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Investors are also keeping a close eye on the Producer Price Index (PPI) data and Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s first semiannual testimony before Congress this week.
In this context, traders have increased their bets on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September 2026. The CME FedWatch tool showed the probability of a rate hike rising to around 78%, compared to 57% just a week earlier. This reflects growing concern about persistent inflationary pressures.
Regional tensions and their impact
In addition to economic factors, markets were supported by security developments in the Middle East. The reimposition of US sanctions on Iranian shipping pushed oil prices to their highest levels in a month. This escalation boosted demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, protecting investment portfolios from geopolitical volatility. Consequently, a delicate balance was created in the markets between the pressure of rising US interest rates and the risk of regional instability, which enhances the appeal of safe havens.
