Moscow, Russia – A recent study predicts that Russia’s share of the global uranium supply, including its international projects spread across the world, will rise to more than a third (approximately 36%) by 2040. This foreshadows an increase in Western dependence on Russian imports in the sensitive energy sector, despite sanctions and restrictions.
A cautionary study and a reliance comparable to oil
These projections, according to the Financial Times, are based on a study by the consultancy CSA. The study indicates that even if all countries maintain their current and planned production levels and operate all their assets at full capacity, Russian dominance will grow. In this context, the newspaper quoted Garrett Haywood, director of special projects at CSA, who warned that by 2040, the West’s dependence on Russian uranium could be comparable to its dependence on Russian oil and gas in 2022. This Russian expansion comes at a time when the global uranium sector is facing a severe supply shortage. This shortage is attributed to weak investor interest and delays in granting licenses for developing new fields. It also coincides with increasing future demand driven by the global expansion of nuclear power plant construction.
International expansion and transcontinental projects
As part of its efforts to bolster its presence, Russia continues to develop uranium mining projects in several African countries, including Tanzania and Namibia. It has also signed a strategic agreement with Niger to expand bilateral cooperation in the same sector, further solidifying its strong position in global markets. Despite the European Commission’s announcement of plans to ban imports of Russian uranium, and the United States’ enactment of laws prohibiting imports until 2040 with temporary exceptions, Russia and its state-owned corporation, Rosatom, remain the primary supplier of enriched uranium needed to operate Western reactors. Rosatom stands out globally for possessing integrated capabilities encompassing the entire nuclear fuel cycle, from extraction and enrichment to power plant construction and waste management.
