Washington, USA – Researcher and member of the US Republican Party, Irina Tsukerman, said that the results of the recent Iraqi elections, which witnessed a decisive victory for the coalition of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani,
This embodies a continuation of the features of the Iraqi political system after 2003,
but at the same time it represents a critical turning point for Iraq’s fragile sovereignty.
Tsukerman added, in exclusive statements to “Sawt Al Emarat”,
that the Sudani success came as a result of his ability to maintain
a delicate balance between competing local forces.
Presenting himself as a “pragmatic nationalist” seeking to achieve stability
without explicitly siding with either Washington or Tehran.
His campaign focused on transparency, fighting corruption, and promoting national dignity,
which earned him support among segments of society weary
of foreign interference and internal crises, according to Tsukerman.
Continued Shiite dominance and a fragile balance
The American researcher adds that al-Sudani victory shows the continued
dominance of Shiite forces over the Iraqi political scene,
although it has taken on a more cohesive character this time.
Through the pro-Iran “Coordination Framework” alliance,
he was able to secure a parliamentary majority.
This was while he maintained channels of communication with Sunni
and Kurdish parties, presenting himself as a unifying national leader.
However, according to Zuckerman, this balance masks a fragile structural reality.
Sudan relies on factions close to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard
to ensure the survival of its government.
This effectively undermines his ability to formulate an independent foreign policy.
Iran: A reliable partner, not a subordinate
The American writer asserts that Tehran sees the Sudani
as a reliable partner, even if not entirely obedient.
She pointed out that his political survival is linked to his relations
with Iranian-backed militias, especially the Popular Mobilization Forces.
These forces ensure the stability of the ruling coalition,
but at the same time they limit his freedom to make independent sovereign or security decisions.
Tsukerman believes that any attempt by Sudani to distance itself
from Tehran could be met with direct economic or security pressures.
United States: Cautious optimism
From Washington’s perspective, the Sudanese option represents
a “temporary safe” choice, as it provides short-term stability without long-term strategic guarantees.
While both the Biden and Trump administrations expressed a desire
to reduce the American military presence in Iraq,
Both political establishments realize that a complete withdrawal would
allow Iran to consolidate its military and political influence unchecked, according to Zuckerman.
Therefore, according to the American researcher, Washington is dealing
with the Sudani government with “cautious optimism”.
It is considered to provide a channel for dialogue, but it is not a reliable pillar for American interests.
The elections do not represent a loss for Iran.
Regarding whether the results of the recent elections represent a setback for the influence of Iran
and armed groups, Tsukerman denied this, stressing that Tehran has not actually lost anything.
She said that Iran “has transformed its influence in Iraq from political
representation to an integrated network of economic, religious and security influence.”
The recent electoral process has given this influence new institutional legitimacy.
She continued: “The rise of the Sudani would not have been possible
without the approval of the factions allied with Tehran,
The coordination framework remains organically linked
to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and the Quds Force.”
Neutrality is impossible
Tsukerman concludes that Sudani victory brings back Iraq’s enduring dilemma:
How can a country seeking independence balance between Iran
and the United States without submitting to either?
She believes that this “Iraqi neutrality” is nothing but a temporary illusion that will soon collapse.
This is when one of the two parties – Washington or Tehran – decides to reassert its influence in Baghdad.
