Baghdad, Iraq – As midnight struck on Sunday, Iraq officially entered a state of “constitutional vacuum” after political forces failed to nominate a prime minister. This deadlock resulted from the inability of the Coordination Framework, the largest parliamentary bloc, to translate its parliamentary weight into a decisive decision within the fifteen-day period granted to President Nizar Amidi since his election. This occurred amidst a complex interplay of internal disputes and intense external pressures.
“Framework” split and repeated postponements
Deep divisions within the “Coordination Framework” prevented agreement on the identity of the next prime minister, leading to the postponement of crucial meetings four times in a single week.
The political landscape within the framework is divided between a faction that insists on nominating “first-tier” leaders to ensure a government with political weight, and another faction that pushes for a “compromise option” to avoid international rejection or popular unrest.
The coalition includes influential forces such as the State of Law Coalition led by Nouri al-Maliki, the Fatah Alliance led by Hadi al-Amiri, and the State Forces Alliance headed by Ammar al-Hakim. Under the quota system, the prime ministership remains reserved for the Shia component. Nizar Amidi holds the presidency (Kurdish component), and Hebat al-Halbousi is the speaker of parliament (Sunni component).
American stumbling block
Externally, the American veto emerged as a key factor in obstructing the nomination process. President Donald Trump’s statements rejecting Nouri al-Maliki’s candidacy exerted immense pressure, dividing the coalition between its adherence to “sovereignty” and its fear of international isolation. Additionally, Basim al-Badri’s name emerged as a “compromise” candidate, supported by al-Maliki, as an alternative after the latter’s chances diminished.
Political forces understand that Washington holds the keys to “economic stability” through the Federal Reserve’s control over dollar flows from Iraqi oil sales deposited in New York. Therefore, any “Saddam-like” government could face financial constraints that threaten budget funding. Furthermore, there is the possibility of withdrawing technical and intelligence support linked to long-standing security agreements.
Legal dilemma scenarios
As the timelines stipulated in Article 76 of the Constitution unfold, the name of current Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani emerges as a “continuity” option, amidst divisions regarding granting him a second term. The names of Haider al-Abadi, Qasim al-Araji, and Mohammed Sahib al-Daraji are also circulating as “last-minute” options acceptable both nationally and internationally.
This constitutional breach is reminiscent of the 2021 political deadlock, but it comes at a more complex regional juncture that cannot afford the luxury of waiting. Having bypassed the constitution, decision-making power has effectively shifted from parliament to backroom negotiations. This situation persists while awaiting a political solution that restores lost legitimacy and averts an imminent security or economic collapse.
