Iran, Tehran – A wave of massive demonstrations is sweeping across various regions of Iran. Demands range from radical economic reforms to comprehensive political change. These protests carry exceptional weight in specific areas due to their religious symbolism. They also gain significance because of their influence in the military industries. However, the deeper driving force lies in the complex demographic makeup of the country. This demographic composition has posed an existential challenge to the central regime in Tehran.
Ethnic map: Persian majority and volatile peripheries
Iran is a country of great cultural and ethnic diversity. Official estimates for 2024 put the population at approximately 85.96 million, while independent estimates place it higher, between 90 and 92 million. This population growth has resulted in a highly complex sectarian and ethnic makeup. Officially declared affiliations often represent “community origins” that do not necessarily reflect personal beliefs, particularly given the persecution faced by atheists and those not officially recognized as such.
Persians (50-60%): They form the backbone of the regime and are concentrated in major cities and the central plateau. Historically a pillar of power, they have recently become a point of vulnerability. Strong opposition voices have emerged among their youth and urban middle class. Azeris (20-25%): The second largest group, numbering around 20 million. Despite their Turkic origins, they are considered pillars of the regime, and the Supreme Leader himself is of Azerbaijani descent on his mother’s side. However, there is simmering discontent due to the marginalization of their language and the dominance of Persian culture. Kurds (7-10%): Concentrated in the west, they represent the historical opposition. Their Sunni faith has led to a consistently tense relationship with Tehran. Frequent uprisings have been met with mass executions and arrests by the regime. Lurs (6%): Concentrated in the west and center, they are characterized by the influence of tribal leaders. They participate in the protests with a noticeable difference between the younger and older generations.
Areas “outside development”: Arabs and Baloch
Arabs (2-3%): They are concentrated in the oil-rich but underdeveloped Ahvaz region. However, a sense of exclusion and discrimination fuels their ongoing protests against central government policies. Baloch (2-4%): They represent the most marginalized group in the southeast of the country. Due to their Sunni identity and their location in the poorest areas, they are subjected to violent institutional repression. Statistics indicate that the Baloch alone accounted for approximately 20% of executions in Iran during 2023. These groups, particularly in Kurdistan and Sistan and Baluchestan, complain of systematic marginalization and deprivation of resources. As a result, their demands have evolved from simply improving living conditions to rights-based and social movements. These movements demand recognition of their identity and political rights.
Doctrinal contradiction and the rule of the jurist
Although Islam unites 99% of Iranians, sectarian divisions pose a security challenge. While 90% adhere to Shi’a Islam, the foundation of the “Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist” system, Sunnis (approximately 10%) constitute a significant bloc in the border regions between the Kurds, Baloch, and Arabs. These minorities face legal and religious restrictions. Meanwhile, the Baha’is (numbering over 300,000) face severe human rights pressures due to their lack of constitutional recognition, alongside the declining numbers of historically significant religious minorities such as Jews, Christians, and Zoroastrians.
The Revolutionary Guard’s grip in the face of divisions
Amid this social upheaval, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) emerges as the primary instrument of central control. Its role extends beyond traditional military operations to include suppressing separatist movements and securing strategic installations.
The regime relies on the IRGC not only to maintain internal stability but also to link its national security to a network of regional militias (Hezbollah and Iraqi factions). Consequently, any disruption to the internal social fabric becomes a direct threat to its regional project.
The Sustainability Challenge: Marginalization as Fuel for Revolution
Field data confirms that ethnic minority areas experience the highest levels of security violence. Demands for change are met with systematic repression. Furthermore, the unequal distribution of resources and power represents a “ticking time bomb” within the Iranian state. A deeper understanding of these dynamics suggests that the current protests are not merely a reaction to transient crises. Rather, they reflect a profound conflict between a “Persian Shiite” centralism and diverse ethnic and religious groups. These groups are demanding their place in the future of Iran.
