Washington, DC – The Atlantic Council, a prominent Washington-based think tank, has warned of the possibility of Tunisia joining the Iranian-led “axis of resistance,” given the recent diplomatic rapprochement and high-level visits between the two countries.
A rapprochement dictated by interests and crises
The center’s analytical report indicated that the recent visit of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi to Tunisia revived speculation about Tehran’s desire to expand its strategic influence, particularly in North Africa.
Experts believe this rapprochement comes at a sensitive time for both sides. Iran seeks to restore its regional standing and compensate for the losses suffered by its proxies in the region over the past two years.
Tunisia is facing international isolation and severe economic pressures, with the decline in US support, which was previously considered the country’s main pillar.
Indicators of strategic transformation
The Atlantic Council cited several practical steps reflecting the seriousness of this rapprochement. Among the most prominent were the readiness to activate joint committees and enhance trade, as well as establishing air links and opening plans to reinstate direct flights between Tehran and Tunis.
And Tunisian President Kais Saied’s visit to Tehran last year to participate in the funeral of the late President Ebrahim Raisi.
Political dimensions: Escaping Western pressures
The report argues that deepening ties with Iran serves President Kais Saied’s “populist and anti-Western” agenda, granting him political maneuvering room and domestic legitimacy in the face of international pressure, particularly given Washington’s reduced support after it ceased viewing Tunisia as an “effective partner in building democracy.”
The Atlantic Council said, “Expanding relations in North Africa can only strengthen the Iranian regime and the so-called axis of resistance, which is now seeking to restore its regional power.”
Alignment with the (Algerian-Iranian) axis
The analysis concluded that Tunisia, suffering from economic weakness and increasing dependence on Algeria, might find a strategic alternative in the “Algerian-Iranian axis.” This is possible if the withdrawal of American support continues, which could alter the balance of power in the Mediterranean basin.
