Washington, DC – The fifth meeting of the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) was held in Washington, DC, on Thursday. This was the first meeting in 11 months and the first under the second administration of US President Donald Trump and the presidency of Lee Jae-myung in South Korea. The two sides were represented by Kim Hong-chul, director of South Korea’s Defense Policy Bureau, and Robert Soper, acting US deputy assistant secretary of defense for nuclear deterrence.
Changes in the joint statement
The press release issued after the meeting featured significant changes compared to previous statements, which analysts interpreted as a reflection of shifts in US policy toward the Korean Peninsula. The most notable of these changes was the removal of the North Korean warning that any nuclear attack by North Korea would be unacceptable and lead to the regime’s downfall. The statement also made no direct references to North Korea. Some experts believe this change is intended to pave the way for a potential summit between Trump and North Korea.
The terminology surrounding extended deterrence was also reduced, with the phrase “in-depth discussions on all areas of extended deterrence, including joint planning and joint implementation” being replaced with a less comprehensive statement focusing on “information sharing, consultation and communication procedures, conventional nuclear integration, joint exercises, simulations, and training.” A South Korean official emphasized that these changes do not alter the group’s function in nuclear strategic planning.
The phrase “reaffirming the commitment to a more regular and increased presence of U.S. strategic assets on the Korean Peninsula” also disappeared from the statement, reflecting reports of a decrease in the deployment of U.S. strategic assets in the region during Trump’s second administration compared to the previous one.
Seoul plays a bigger role in traditional defense.
The statement affirmed that South Korea would continue to play a leading role in the conventional defense of the Korean Peninsula, a move interpreted as a response to President Trump’s calls for an expanded role for allies within the framework of “alliance modernization.” In return, the U.S. delegation reiterated its commitment to providing extended deterrence to South Korea using the full range of U.S. military capabilities, including nuclear weapons.
Future and bilateral cooperation
Both sides assessed the activities of the Nuclear Working Group positively, emphasizing the strengthening of cooperative decision-making in the event of a potential nuclear crisis. They also agreed that the National Advisory Group would continue its work as a permanent bilateral body, allaying concerns that its mandate might be reconsidered following the Trump administration’s inauguration. The group’s sixth meeting was scheduled for the first half of next year.
