Exclusive, Voice of Emirates – Researcher and political analyst Tariq Abu Zeinab confirmed in an exclusive statement to Voice of Emirates that Iran no longer faces traditional
external challenges limited to international sanctions or stalled negotiations with Western powers.
Abu Zeinab explained that the real crisis plaguing Tehran today lies in the erosion of
the cornerstone of its strategic power, on which it has relied for decades.
This cornerstone is its network of regional influence and its armed proxies.
Abu Zeinab pointed out that the regional landscape is undergoing a radical restructuring,
with the concept of the “nation-state” taking center stage.
Arab capitals are also reclaiming their sovereign decision-making power and rejecting the logic of axes imposed by Tehran.
This qualitative shift has made traditional Iranian influence policies less acceptable in the region.
Consequently, regional security, the protection of maritime routes,
and state sovereignty have become more seriously considered by international powers.
Lebanon: A Model of Decline
Regarding the Lebanese arena, Abu Zeinab believes it has become the most prominent example of this decline.
Lebanon, which for years represented the strongest sphere of Iranian influence, now lives a completely different reality.
Amid ongoing military confrontations and international and domestic political pressures,
Lebanese voices have grown louder, demanding that weapons be exclusively held by the state.
The political analyst emphasized that the economic and human devastation inflicted on southern Lebanon,
and its subsequent repercussions, have led to a surge in popular discontent.
These voices consider the continued existence of Hezbollah’s weapons outside the control of
the Lebanese state to be a primary source of crises and division, rather than a factor for stability.
The Iranian dilemma: the cost of survival
Abu Zeinab emphasized that the Iranian crisis is not separate from the course of negotiations with Washington.
In this context, the levers of influence in Lebanon, Iraq, the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz,
and Bab el-Mandeb have become integral to any dialogue.
He pointed out that Tehran finds itself facing an unprecedented strategic dilemma;
while it insists on considering its armed proxies a fundamental pillar of its external influence,
the cost of maintaining this influence in a hostile regional environment,
both economically and politically, has become more than Iran can bear domestically.
He explained that there is a growing internal debate in Iran directly linking the economic decline, inflation, and cost-of-living pressures.
Furthermore, this debate is connected to the enormous resources spent on supporting allies abroad.
The struggle of factions and the search for destiny
Regarding Hezbollah, Abu Zeinab explained that the crisis the party is experiencing is a direct reflection of the state of confusion in Tehran.
There is a genuine struggle within the party’s ranks between two factions: one pushing for a political repositioning to mitigate losses,
and the other clinging to the option of confrontation and intransigence for fear of erosion.
According to Abu Zeinab, these disagreements transcend the technical aspects
and touch upon the very political and organizational core of the party.
This comes amidst a decline in Iran’s ability to provide the financial and political umbrella it has relied upon for years.
Political researcher Tariq Abu Zeinab concluded his statement to “Voice of Emirates” by emphasizing
that we are facing a “crisis of the entire project,” not merely an organizational one.
The conviction is growing stronger every day that the era of transnational influence has ended.
Furthermore, the future of the region now belongs to state institutions and sovereign legitimacy.
This places the Iranian project in direct confrontation with the inevitability of decline and the failure to replicate the past.
