Tehran, Iran – Amid the deteriorating health of Iranian Assembly of Experts chairman Mohammad Ali Movahedi Kermani and his intention to resign,
a heated power struggle is underway within the constitutional body tasked
with overseeing the selection and monitoring of the Supreme Leader.
This situation raises significant questions about its direct impact on the uncertainty surrounding
Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s position and the future of the regime.
Prominent figures have emerged as potential successors to head the Assembly,
including Ahmad Alamolhoda, Arefi, Sadegh Larijani, and Rajabi.
According to observers, this reflects a deep disconnect between the legal framework of the Assembly
and its political reality as a tool manipulated behind the scenes by the military and security establishment.
Pressure from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard
In a deep analysis of the situation, exiled political dissident Hassan Shariatmadari, in an interview with Zamaneh.com,
argues that the Assembly of Experts has been completely transformed
into a tool for consolidating the caliphate and entrenching the balance of power.
Furthermore, he points out that any decisions made within the Assembly are issued under pressure
from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and the network of influential clerics,
completely disregarding the aspirations and interests of the Iranian people,
who are suffering under suffocating economic crises.
The consequences of the conflict between the regime’s factions
The core issue lies in the current Supreme Leader’s prolonged absence
from public view, coupled with a dearth of official information.
This places the legitimacy of the entire regime on the assumption of
Mojtaba Khamenei’s existence, competence, and the legality of his potential selection.
Shariatmadari explained that the scenario for announcing Mojtaba’s
ascension to power was orchestrated behind the scenes within the Revolutionary Guard.
This effectively bypassed the “Interim Leadership Council” mechanism stipulated
in the constitutional arrangements for the absence of the Supreme Leader.
Therefore, the struggle for the chairmanship of the Assembly of Experts
does not represent a shift in the structure of the regime.
Rather, it reflects a repositioning and rebalancing of power among the various factions.
Setting the pace and containing crises
The political leanings of the potential candidates are distributed across a finely divided map.
Alam al-Hoda is considered part of the hardline faction opposed to
any compromise or negotiations (and is close to Saeed Jalili).
Arefi represents a convergence of interests between the Revolutionary Guard
and traditional religious institutions.
Sadegh Larijani, on the other hand, is seen as representing the centrist faction,
seeking to control the situation and contain crises.
However, these factional alignments serve only the interests of the ruling elite,
without any positive impact on the lives of ordinary citizens.
Moreover, it is highly unlikely that these elections will pave the way
for any fundamental constitutional amendments
or a popular referendum, which remains subject to the will of the regime’s top leadership.
