Exclusive | “Hybrid Warfare” Scenarios and the Dismantling of Iranian Deterrence in Trump’s Expected Strategy

Features of a complex attack and a scenario of internal dismantling

The Iraqi researcher continued, stating that the US administration realistically recognizes the impossibility of a direct and protracted war with Iran due to the uncertain military and political costs. Therefore, any potential action will rely on a low-intensity internal destabilization scenario rather than open confrontation. Elias added that military reports indicate the attack will be phased, beginning with a cyberattack and culminating in airstrikes involving strategic bombers within the next 24 hours. These strikes aim to target security, military, and intelligence infrastructure to disrupt field command, create an impression of loss of control, and undermine psychological deterrence. They also aim to create a calculated period of chaos that can be exploited later.

Empowering local forces and a strategy of attrition at the borders

The researcher in strategic and security affairs stated, “Washington may rely in later stages on empowering armed or separatist groups to control small border cities without a formal declaration. Signs of this have already begun to emerge with the Kurdish Free Life Party’s announcement of its control over Revolutionary Guard positions in Kermanshah and the military tensions in the southeast of the country.” Elias explained that this strategy aims to weaken the regime’s ability to confront protests and increase the likelihood of hesitant social classes taking to the streets. This is achieved by linking internal security to open border fronts, which has prompted Tehran to demand that neighboring countries secure their borders. This reflects Washington’s desire to create new bargaining chips in the nuclear and regional issues without incurring the cost of a full-scale war.

Obstacles to progress and the risks of a lack of political vision

Elias argued that this approach, based on “hybrid warfare,” faces significant obstacles, including Iran’s advanced intelligence capabilities and the sensitivity of neighboring countries to any prolonged border instability. He also cited the weak public support for foreign intervention.

Dr. Firas Elias warned that any military strike lacking a clear political strategy for the post-attack phase would lead to a certain catastrophe both inside and outside Iran. This is especially true given that the confrontation between Trump and Khamenei has moved beyond calculated responses and reached a point of no return. This means that Tehran might retaliate with harsh and unconventional measures, potentially presenting the Trump administration with extremely difficult existential challenges.