Exclusive, Voice of the Emirates – Political analyst and member of the US Republican Party, Irina Tsukerman, stated that the ongoing tensions in eastern Syria between the Syrian government and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are best understood as a struggle over sovereignty, resources, and the future shape of the state, rather than simply an ethnic confrontation.
Tsukerman added to Voice of the Emirates that the SDF still controls key areas east of the Euphrates, including vital oil and agricultural regions,
and has established a security and administrative system that Damascus considers an unacceptable parallel authority.
In contrast, Damascus is attempting to restore its sovereignty after years of fragmentation, but lacks legitimacy and the capacity to govern,
leading it to resort to coercion, infiltration, and selective pressure tactics instead of reconciliation.
Warnings about Damascus’ strategies
Researcher Tsukerman pointed out that the local Arab communities in northeastern Syria, who have lived under SDF administration for years,
are pursuing their own interests, primarily seeking security, stable livelihoods, and local autonomy, rather than ideological alignment with Damascus.
This makes a full-scale Kurdish war against the Arab world unlikely.
However, Tsukerman cautioned that Damascus’s strategies of pressuring the SDF through sabotage,
assassinations, and tribal incitement could endanger Arab tribes allied with the SDF,
as well as Kurdish communities, creating a violent environment where local divisions are exacerbated and exploited by armed groups.
Researcher Tsukerman emphasized that this tension leads to a dangerous security vacuum in combat zones,
especially given the preoccupation with political conflict.
This vacuum allows ISIS freedom of movement, recruitment, fundraising, and the execution of assassinations.
She noted that the release of large numbers of ISIS prisoners exacerbates the risks,
as it allows the group to reorganize its operational expertise, strengthen its networks,
and reignite its campaigns of intimidation against local leaders.
Tsukerman concluded by saying that these developments are not limited to direct threats;
they also affect the psyche of civil society.
Fear drives residents into silence and undermines cooperation with security forces,
making counterinsurgency operations on the ground more difficult and complex.
