Washington, DC – The Middle East is experiencing one of its most volatile periods, with the escalating confrontation between the United States and Iran. Vital infrastructure in the Gulf states is being targeted. Furthermore, maritime navigation in the straits that are a vital artery for the global economy is under threat. This escalation is no longer solely military; it has extended to the economic, political, and international alliance spheres. Consequently, the region faces a range of unpredictable scenarios if the crisis is not managed wisely.
In this context, Dr. Ihsan Khatib, Professor of Political Science at Murray State University, offers an analytical perspective on the dimensions of the situation and its repercussions for the Gulf.
Washington and the Gulf: A steadfast alliance and clear messages of deterrence
Dr. Al-Khatib believes that the United States will remain the strategic ally of the Gulf states. He affirms that this alliance has not changed despite campaigns of doubt. He points out that Washington possesses a vast military presence around the world, which enhances its ability to protect its allies.
He emphasizes that military and technological support for the Gulf states will continue. Furthermore, he asserts that claims of America abandoning its allies are nothing more than political propaganda.
Sea straits: a losing bargaining chip
Regarding the threat to navigation, Al-Khatib asserts that Iran lacks any legal justification for disrupting the straits. He adds that such a move would be a reckless gamble.
He further states that this policy has not achieved its objectives but has instead harmed Iran itself. Moreover, it has exposed the limits of Iran’s ability to influence the global economy, given the international community’s resistance to any attempts to blackmail international trade.
“Greater Iran”: A Project That Collides with Reality
Al-Khatib criticizes proposals related to expanding Iranian influence or redrawing the region’s map, deeming them more akin to propaganda than reality.
He emphasizes that the international balance of power, particularly American influence, makes it difficult for any party to impose complete hegemony over the Gulf. He also points out that the Iranian project since 1979 has contributed to deepening the region’s crises rather than resolving them.
The UAE and Saudi Arabia: A model of openness and development in the face of challenges
Al-Khatib points out that the UAE has presented an open economic model. It has also contributed to mitigating the repercussions of sanctions through economic means, without this constituting support for any hostile agendas.
He adds that the UAE and Saudi Arabia are pursuing a development path distinct from Tehran’s policies. This puts them in direct confrontation with regional influence projects and strengthens the region’s resilience against any attempt at hegemony. Dr. Al-Khatib concludes that Iran faces genuine challenges in projecting its influence, and its leverage is no longer as effective as it once was.
He emphasizes that continued Gulf-American coordination is a fundamental pillar for maintaining stability, at a time when the region needs more cohesive strategies to protect its security and vital interests.
