Baghdad, Iraq – Amid the recent military escalation between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other, many Iraqi factions loyal to Tehran have not yet engaged in combat, despite decades of Iranian support and training for these groups to conduct armed operations abroad.
An Iraqi official loyal to Iran, who requested anonymity, indicated that Iran has not yet issued direct orders for action,
as the Iranian leadership is focused on countering potential threats to its existence.
According to multiple sources within the factions, as well as Iraqi and Western officials,
the Iraqi factions have lost a significant portion of their capabilities
due to the Israeli and American war of attrition, the loss of supply lines from Syria,
and the involvement of some of their leaders in politics and business.
Military setback… and interests of the factions
Although some groups have claimed responsibility for rocket and drone attacks in Erbil and other Iraqi regions,
most of the attacks were carried out with older weapons and caused minimal damage.
Security sources indicate that Iran has not sent any advanced weaponry since last year.
Experts and observers suggest that faction leaders are focused on avoiding sanctions
and protecting their personal interests, including their families’ education and healthcare,
as well as their economic well-being, making them less inclined to engage in direct conflict with the United States and Israel.
Strategic assessment of relations with Iran
These developments reflect a new reality in the relationship between Iran and its Iraqi proxies.
Tehran is no longer able to impose its military will as it once did, given the loss of secure bases,
the assassinations of prominent leaders, and the decline in logistical support.
This presents the proxies with significant internal and external challenges.
The overall picture remains that most Iraqi factions loyal to Iran are trying to protect their interests
and avoid direct confrontation, despite regional threats and the current military escalation,
while the world closely monitors the actions of Tehran and its allies.
