Baghdad, Iraq – As the final results of the Iraqi parliamentary elections are awaited, the political landscape is entering a phase of difficult negotiations. The repercussions of this phase extend beyond the formation of the new government; they will determine Iraq’s future course within a new and evolving regional equation.
Analysts believe that the intense competition within the Shiite and Sunni communities, in addition to the divergent positions of the two active powers, Iran and the United States, will solidify either “state guardianship” or “resistance guardianship”.
Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission confirmed on Monday that the auditing and counting of all polling stations has been completed. It indicated that the results matched the manual count 100%. The final results and the allocation of parliamentary seats are expected to be announced today or tomorrow.
As the winning forces prepare for a new phase of arduous negotiations to form a government, internal Shiite competition is emerging over who will lead the largest bloc, especially between current Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and the coalition of his rival Nouri al-Maliki.
Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has the advantage of having secured the most individual seats. Furthermore, he received early American approval following the announcement of the preliminary results. This external support strengthens his negotiating position.
It is also believed that some forces within the “Coordination Framework” do not possess a decisive “veto” over al-Sudani. Disagreements with him can be resolved through negotiation and by granting him the positions and privileges they request. This significantly strengthens his chances of a second term.
Defining Iraq’s path in the regional equation
In the context of political analysis, Dr. Firas Elias, Professor of International Relations at the University of Mosul, told “Sawt Al Emarat” that the current elections will not differ in their results from previous ones. However, they will differ in their repercussions, which will determine Iraq’s future course within the new regional equation.
Elias tells “Sawt Al Emarat” that the Iraqi political landscape will be determined by the election results and the formation of the next government. This comes at a time when the regional equation can no longer tolerate the current ambiguous situation in Iraq, especially given the dichotomy between state control and resistance control.
The analysis suggests that Iran is banking on these results to maintain the current political balance, particularly within the Shia community. The United States, on the other hand, is hoping to create a new political equation that will allow it to reassert its role in Iraq.
Talks to form the new government are expected to continue for many weeks. This follows the final ratification of the results and the opening of a three-day appeals period starting the day after the results are published on the commission’s official website.
Internal power struggles and the formation of alliances
Iraqi political analyst Hadi Jalu Mar’i explained that the situation is inevitably heading towards the necessity of forming clear alliances between Shiite, Sunni, and Kurdish forces. This step is essential for the stability of the political process.
Marai suggested to “Sawt Al Emarat” that former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki possesses the ability to unite Shia forces in a large coalition. This coalition would reshape the political landscape within the Shia community.
Mar’i confirmed the existence of strong internal competition among Sunni forces. He pointed out that Sheikh Khamis al-Khanjar is the closest politically to the “Azm” alliance and believes he possesses the political maneuvering skills to form a broad coalition. This coalition would unite “Azm,” “Taqaddum,” and other Sunni forces, given the difficulty of reaching a direct agreement with the head of the Taqaddum alliance, Mohammed al-Halbousi, at this stage.
Talks to form the new government are expected to continue for many weeks, after the final ratification of the results and the opening of the appeals process.
American position
Researcher and Republican Party member Irina Tsukerman believes that Washington is dealing with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani with “cautious optimism.” She attributes this to the paradox that the independence Iraq seeks could collapse without a minimal American presence.
In a statement to “Voice of the Emirates,” Tsukerman explained that both administrations of US Presidents Biden and Trump share a common interest in reducing the American military presence in Iraq. However, they also recognize that allowing Iran to consolidate its power unchecked would destroy the delicate balance achieved at great cost over two decades.
Tsukerman believes that the Sudanese government “provides an outlet for dialogue” with Washington, but at the same time “is not a reliable pillar for American strategic interests.”
The researcher emphasized that a continued American presence and oversight remains essential. This will prevent the resurgence of ISIS and deter further Iranian aggression in the region.
