Cairo, Egypt – Egyptian political and strategic affairs expert Mounir Adib, specializing in national security and terrorism issues, warned about the ongoing war in Sudan. It opens the door wide for the expansion and entrenchment of extremist groups in several of the country’s states.
He emphasized that the security and political chaos from the armed conflict creates a conducive environment. This environment aids the resurgence of organizations such as ISIS and other terrorist groups.
The risk of ISIS emerging in Sudan
Adib explained to “Sawt Al Emarat” that the turmoil caused by the war and the resulting security breakdowns offer opportunities. ISIS and its affiliates could infiltrate Sudan, especially given the disintegration of state institutions and their diminished capacity to control borders and manage security matters.
The researcher pointed out that Sudan, for decades, especially during the rule of former President Omar al-Bashir, was a fertile ground for political Islamist groups. These groups are now experiencing a surge in presence and expansion across the African continent.
He added that failure to reach a truce or any settlement to end the war in Sudan means the conflict will remain open-ended. Consequently, this increases the appeal for extremist organizations, most notably ISIS.
Adib pointed out that Sudan already harbors a diverse array of armed Islamist political groups. Many of these groups coexist in a state of “non-confrontational coexistence,” a danger in itself. This environment allows these groups to wait and expand in a security-poor area.
From Mali to Sudan
In a regional context, the researcher pointed out that the expansion of Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin’s influence in Mali could encourage al-Qaeda-affiliated factions. These factions might seek to increase their influence within Sudan. They exploit the turbulent landscape and the lack of a unified political vision in Sudan.
He also explained that Sudan is witnessing two contradictory projects today. One project seeks to confront extremist organizations and strike at their presence. The other project uses some of them in the context of the internal conflict.
However, in his view, the most dangerous aspect is the continuation of the war itself. This war provides a safe haven for ISIS elements and similar groups. This occurs especially given the organization’s expanding activity in Africa after its collapse in the Middle East on March 22, 2019.
Adib concluded that all assessments indicate the war in Sudan is likely to continue for an extended period. Consequently, this increases the likelihood of extremist groups expanding their influence. This will happen if the root causes of the conflict are not addressed and state institutions and their capacity to maintain security are not restored.
