Tel Aviv, Israel – Israeli and Arab intelligence reports, cited by The Wall Street Journal, reveal that Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite movement loyal to Iran, is rebuilding its military arsenal and reducing its ranks. This move challenges the ceasefire agreement with Israel and raises the possibility of renewed conflict.
The report indicates that Hezbollah, with Iranian support, is replenishing its stockpiles of missiles, anti-tank missiles, and artillery. These weapons are flowing into Lebanon via established smuggling routes from Syria and through seaports. There are also reports that Hezbollah has begun producing new weapons locally.
Israeli warning and border tensions
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar confirmed these reports yesterday (October 30), declaring that “Hezbollah continues to intensify its reconstruction and rearmament efforts with Iranian support.” He warned that this race “poses a threat to Israel’s security, as well as to the future of Lebanon,” and that Tel Aviv “cannot bury its head in the sand.”
In contrast, recent Israeli incursions into southern Lebanon have prompted a strong reaction from the Lebanese presidency. President Joseph Aoun called on his armed forces to “confront any Israeli incursion into the south of the country, in defense of its national territory and the safety of its citizens.”
Aoun’s call came after an Israeli Defense Forces incursion into Blida (southern Lebanon), during which a municipal employee was killed, according to the Lebanese account. The Israeli army claimed the operation was aimed at “destroying Hezbollah infrastructure.”
Disarmament challenges
The ceasefire agreement, which came into effect last November, stipulates the commencement of disarmament operations south of the Litani River. Despite the public support of President Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam for disarming Hezbollah and establishing a state monopoly on the use of force, this process faces significant challenges.
The Lebanese government has made progress in dismantling Hezbollah sites and weapons in the far south. However, other areas of the party’s influence, such as Beirut’s southern suburbs and the Bekaa Valley, have seen little progress due to resistance from the armed group.
But there are doubts about the effectiveness of the Lebanese army’s operations, which, according to a senior official speaking to The Wall Street Journal, “is neither interested in nor prepared to engage militarily with Hezbollah.” The official added, “We’re stuck in a gray area.”
New structure and regional support
Amid this deterioration, Hezbollah insists that its weapons “represent a source of strength for Lebanon” against Israel. The report states that the Shiite group is reverting to a more decentralized structure, similar to the one it adopted in the 1980s. Hamas is also now using this model in Gaza, and has recruited new fighters to fill the gaps.
A source told the newspaper: “Hezbollah does not believe it has been defeated. It still believes it can regroup and, more importantly, that it still has regional support: Iran.”
