Dubai, United Arab Emirates – Possibilities appear open two days before the Nobel Peace Prize is awarded.
But one thing is almost certain: the winner will not be Donald Trump, who is so eager for her this year. But what name will the Norwegian Nobel Committee choose?
The Nobel Peace Prize is awarded on Friday at 11:00 (12:00 GMT) in Oslo, in a gloomy atmosphere.
The number of armed conflicts involving at least one country has never reached as high a level as it did in 2024. This has been the case since the Swedish University of Uppsala began its statistics in this field in 1946.
One thing seems certain, which is that the US President will not receive the award, at least not this year. This is according to observers, even though he claims he deserves it for his contribution to resolving 8 disputes.
“No, it won’t be Trump this year,” Swedish university professor Peter Wallenstein, who specializes in international affairs, told AFP.
“But maybe next year?” he added. By then, the clouds will have cleared over his various initiatives, especially regarding the Gaza crisis.
Greatly exaggerated
Experts believe that the US President’s claim to be a “peacemaker” is greatly exaggerated.
They also expressed concern about the repercussions of his “America First” policy.
“Beyond his attempts to mediate in Gaza, we are witnessing policies that contradict the intentions and principles set out in Nobel’s will,” explains Nina Graeger. She is the director of the Oslo Peace Research Institute (PRIO).
It is international cooperation, brotherhood among peoples and disarmament.
There is a long list of objections to Trump that may prevent him from being awarded the prestigious award. This includes withdrawing from international organizations and multilateral treaties. It also involves a trade war on countries around the world, including “old friends and allies.” Also, his ambitions for Greenland in Denmark contribute. Furthermore, he deploys military forces in American cities, and violates academic freedom and freedom of expression.
“We look at the whole picture,” says Jürgen Watten-Friedens, chairman of the five-member Nobel Peace Prize Committee.
“What matters in general is the organization or the individual from a comprehensive perspective,” he added. But what we focus on above all is what they have actually accomplished in the service of peace.”
A winner who does not raise controversy?
This year, 338 individuals and organizations were nominated for the Nobel Prize. Notably, the list of nominees has been kept secret for 50 years. Tens of thousands of people, including parliamentarians and ministers from all countries, former award winners, university professors, and Nobel Committee members are eligible. They are able to submit names they nominate to win the award.
In 2024, the Nobel Prize was awarded to Nihon Hidankyo, a group of survivors of the atomic bomb attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. This was in recognition of their struggle against nuclear weapons.
In the absence of a candidate seen as the most likely, Oslo is being discussed under several names. Some of these include the Sudanese Emergency Rooms Network (ERR), Russian Yulia Navalnaya, widow of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, or ODIHR. This is the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.
Halvard Lira, director of research at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, says that in recent years, “the Nobel Peace Prize Committee has returned to focus on more +mini+ issues.” These are closer to classical ideas of peace. They maintain their connection to human rights, democracy, freedom of the press, and women.
“My hunch is that this year we’re probably leaning toward a less controversial winner,” Lyra continues.
The Nobel Committee may reaffirm its commitment to a world order that is not in line with Donald Trump’s aspirations. They might do this by rewarding UN Secretary-General António Guterres or a UN agency. For instance, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees or the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA).
The committee may also choose to award the award to international justice bodies such as the International Court of Justice or the International Criminal Court. Alternatively, they might consider bodies active in the field of press freedom. Examples are the CPJ Committee for the Protection of Journalists and Reporters Without Borders. Or perhaps, as they often do, they will give the award to an unexpected party. This could be outside the common names.
