Cairo, Egypt – A Reuters poll showed that Egypt’s economy will grow by 4.6% in the current fiscal year ending in June 2026. This exceeds the government’s target of 4.5% announced by the Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation.
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These positive expectations come amid continued declines in inflation and interest rates, as well as the depreciation of the Egyptian pound, which has contributed to boosting exports and supporting various economic sectors.
The Egyptian economy achieved growth of 4.4% in the last fiscal year (2024-2025), the highest growth rate in two years, compared to 2.4% in the previous year, according to Planning Minister Rania Al-Mashat. This comes amid continued support from economic reforms.
Continued growth in the coming years
The survey, which surveyed 16 economists from October 6 to 20, forecasts continued economic expansion. Growth is expected to rise to 4.9% in fiscal year 2026-27 and 5.3% in fiscal year 2027-28.
The decline in growth to 2.4% in 2023-2024 is due to several factors. The economy is expected to recover after March 2024, with the government’s decision to sharply devalue the currency and raise interest rates. This is part of an $8 billion financial support package in cooperation with the International Monetary Fund.
Growth factors
The depreciation of the pound has contributed to a revival in the tourism sector and increased remittances from Egyptians working abroad. The economy has also been boosted by a massive $35 billion real estate investment by Abu Dhabi in the Ras El Hekma area on the North Coast.
The Central Bank of Egypt recently announced that the growth rate accelerated to 5% in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year. This compares to 4.8% in the first quarter of the same year.
Capital Economics confirmed that the improvement in external competitiveness is due to lower inflation and loose monetary policy. These factors are boosting economic growth, noting that the Egyptian economy is witnessing a strong recovery supported by the export sector and local manufacturing.
IMF forecasts and exchange rate movements
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its forecast for Egypt’s economic growth for the current fiscal year to 4.5%, up from a previous forecast of 4.1%, according to its latest World Economic Outlook report.
In contrast, Reuters analysts expect the Egyptian pound to continue declining against the dollar. It is expected to reach EGP 49.85 by the end of June 2026, then fall further to EGP 52 in 2027 and EGP 54 in 2028.
However, the pound’s exchange rate has improved significantly over the past three months, stabilizing at less than 48 pounds to the dollar, supported by declining global demand for the dollar. Foreign investors have also shifted to Egyptian treasury bills and bonds, in addition to a recovery in the tourism sector.
