Tehran, Iran – Recent official figures released by the Indian Ministry of Economy reveal a sharp and alarming decline in trade volume with Iran during March. This month also saw the outbreak of military clashes, reflecting the direct economic impact of instability on Iran’s regional and international trade partnerships.
Shocking figures in trade exchange with India
According to the data, Iranian exports to India plummeted by 38%, reaching a mere $43 million during the first month of the 39-day war.
The trade losses weren’t limited to exports; Iranian imports from India also suffered a far greater decline, falling by 72% to less than $130 million.
These figures reflect the disruption to the supply chains and logistics that once connected the two countries and underscore the vulnerability of the Iranian economy to geopolitical shocks.
Declining trade with major partners
This decline is not limited to India alone, but extends to all of Tehran’s major trading partners. Statistics released by China – Iran’s largest trading partner – show a sharp drop in its non-oil trade with Tehran during March and April, reaching only one-fifth of what it was during the same period last year.
Cross-referenced data from Turkey, Iran’s fourth-largest trading partner, indicates a similar downward trend in trade volume during the same two months. India thus ranks fifth among trading partners affected by this accelerating decline.
Lack of transparency amid economic uncertainty
Amid these developments, which paint a bleak picture of the Iranian economy under current circumstances, a striking “statistical silence” raises questions. Iraq, Iran’s third-largest trading partner, has not published any trade reports for this period. Furthermore, Iranian customs authorities have abruptly ceased publishing their regular trade reports.
This reluctance to disclose economic data is believed to be part of Tehran’s efforts to cope with the “war uncertainty” and its impact on the balance of payments and the availability of hard currency. For this reason, obtaining accurate figures on the Iranian economy has become extremely difficult. This opens the door to international assessments indicating a deeper contraction in overall economic activity in the coming period.
