Abu DHABI, UAE – Credit rating agency S&P Global has fixed the Abu Dhabi government’s long- and short-term sovereign credit rating in foreign and local currency at (AA/A-1+) while keeping the outlook stable.
She pointed out that the emirate’s huge financial and external buffers provide adequate protection against geopolitical risks and fluctuations in the oil sector.
The agency confirmed in a research update that Abu Dhabi’s stable outlook reflects the agency’s view on the economic flexibility and financial strength of the emirate, and its ability to enhance the resilience of Abu Dhabi’s economy in the face of geopolitical risks.
The agency said in its report: “Our credit ratings for the Emirate of Abu Dhabi remain strongly supported by the government’s financial and external positions, and the exceptional strength of the government’s net asset position (estimated at about 358% of GDP in 2026) provides significant protection against external shocks”.
The emirate has also demonstrated a consistent ability to overcome periods of pressure, supported by a strong record of wise policy development.
flexibility
The agency stressed that this flexibility will enable the UAE to withstand temporary disruptions in oil production and export routes.
The government is expected to continue to achieve fiscal surpluses averaging 3.8% of GDP over the forecast period until 2029, assuming Brent oil prices will be at $65 per barrel.
The agency noted that the emirate’s significant financial and external buffers would provide protective barriers to absorb the repercussions of geopolitical developments and unfavorable hydrocarbon sector dynamics.
Including disruption of oil production or exports.
She pointed out that the basic premise remains that Abu Dhabi’s significant financial, economic and external resilience will act as an effective buffer against the effects of the current geopolitical situation.
output growth
The agency expected Abu Dhabi’s real GDP to grow by 2.2% this year, and nominal GDP to rise to 1.16 trillion dirhams ($316.9 billion).
Abu Dhabi is expected to achieve a general budget surplus this year equivalent to 3.3% of GDP, a current account surplus equivalent to 8.9% of GDP, and an inflation rate of approximately 1.5%.
financial surpluses
According to the report, Abu Dhabi recorded a fiscal surplus of 6.7% of GDP in 2024, in line with 2023 levels.
It expected the average surplus to reach 3.8% of GDP during the period 2025-2026.
Before expanding to reach about 3.9% on average during the period 2027-2029.
