Washington, United States – Two informed sources revealed that the US Central Intelligence Agency estimated, in the period preceding the US and Israeli attacks on Iran, that in the event of the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, he would most likely be replaced by hardline figures from the Revolutionary Guard, rather than by a reformist or transitional leadership.
Pre-strike assessments
According to the sources, the assessments were prepared over the past two weeks and addressed scenarios following any potential US military intervention, including the possibility of regime change in the Islamic Republic—an objective recently stated explicitly by Washington. The sources emphasized that the intelligence reports did not reach a definitive conclusion but rather presented multiple scenarios without any clear preference.
Washington’s stance and Trump’s statements
In recent weeks, US President Donald Trump has indicated his country’s interest in bringing about regime change in Iran, without specifying the nature of a potential alternative or the form a transitional phase would take. In a televised address, Trump described the Iranian leadership as a “terrorist regime,” calling on the Iranian people to take control of their own destiny and suggesting that military strikes might pave the way for internal change.
The path of nuclear negotiations
The strikes came after weeks of debate within the US administration about the feasibility of military action, coinciding with efforts to reach a nuclear agreement with Tehran to avert escalation. However, the talks hosted by Geneva failed to produce an agreement, despite Secretary of State Marco Rubio informing congressional leaders of the possibility of military action, while noting that the final decision rested with the president.
