Washington, DC – In an opinion piece published in The Wall Street Journal, American writer William Galston warned that Kyiv could be in a “deep predicament” if the final peace agreement with Russia resembles the 28-point draft plan circulating behind the scenes. He explained that the initial points of the draft give the impression that Ukraine might be forced to make major concessions, concessions that would infringe upon its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Risks to Ukraine’s future
The analysis indicates that the current draft is biased in Moscow’s favor, particularly in terms of establishing lines of control on the ground and imposing restrictions on future arms shipments to Ukraine. Furthermore, it contains provisions that could effectively freeze the conflict rather than resolve it.
Galston believes that Kyiv’s acceptance of these terms will leave it in a weak position in the long run and make any future confrontation with Russia more likely, especially if the plan does not include solid security guarantees from the West.
The West’s role in drafting the agreement
The article questions the willingness of the United States and the European Union to offer concrete security guarantees to the Ukrainian government after the war ends. It argues that the absence of such guarantees will put Kyiv under immense pressure to accept an unfair agreement.
It also indicates that some Western capitals are now inclined to “stop the war at any cost.” This comes amid the economic and political strain caused by the conflict that has been ongoing since February 2022.
An agreement that could redraw the map
Galston concludes that the draft, in its current form, could impose a new geopolitical reality. This reality would redraw the map of influence in Eastern Europe and could grant Moscow significant military and political gains at little cost.
He warns that Ukraine may find itself facing a peace agreement that is in name only, but in essence a “veiled surrender”.
The author concludes that any peace plan that fails to address Kyiv’s security concerns and restore respect for international law will be a recipe for future conflict. Therefore, he urges the West not to rush into a premature agreement that could ignite a second war in a few years.
