Tel Aviv, Israel – Senior officials in the Israeli defense establishment have expressed growing concern over the ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran. They warned that the current negotiating track may not take into account Israel’s security concerns, potentially exposing Tel Aviv to increased strategic risks. According to experts on Iranian affairs, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei does not intend to abandon the nuclear program, which he views as essential to the regime’s survival. Experts believe that the most Tehran is likely to agree to is a temporary suspension of some development activities.
Meanwhile, the locations of Iran’s 60% enriched uranium stockpiles remain unknown. Beyond the nuclear issue, Israeli assessments confirm that Iran has no intention of relinquishing its ballistic missile arsenal. Some of these missiles pose a direct threat to Israel. This deepens doubts about the viability of any agreement that does not include strict limitations on these capabilities, according to The Jerusalem Post. In this context, Israeli defense officials believe the entire US-Iranian negotiation process could be “bad for Israel.” They believe that Israel is unlikely to prioritize its security requirements in any potential agreement.
Israeli assessments present two main scenarios:
The first is reaching what is known as a “safe haven agreement.” This agreement could prevent Israel from launching any military attack against Iran.
The second is an “open” agreement. This would grant Israel freedom of military action to eliminate threats and protect its security interests. This model is comparable to the undeclared arrangements between the United States and the Houthis. The threat remains, but the Israeli army is given a wider margin of maneuver. The second scenario is considered the most advantageous for Israel because it takes into account the possibility of negotiations failing. Should negotiations fail, this could lead to US military action against Iran. It is estimated that the Israeli army is preparing for this eventuality. In addition, other scenarios include Iran resorting to using its regional proxies to harm Israel. This would necessitate a direct military response.
The general framework for the negotiations is expected to be revealed in the coming days. This will allow for a realistic assessment of the effectiveness of the US military presence in the Middle East in deterring Iran. In a related development, the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office announced that Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to meet with US President Donald Trump in Washington next Wednesday. The meeting will address the course of the nuclear negotiations with Iran. The office confirmed that Netanyahu believes any potential agreement must include restrictions on Iran’s ballistic missile program. Furthermore, Tehran’s support for what is known as the “Iranian axis” must end. Trump had previously stated that the nuclear talks held in Muscat, Oman, were “very good.” He indicated that the US and Iranian sides would meet again early next week. He added that Iran “wants to reach an agreement.” At the same time, he affirmed that his country will not allow Tehran to possess nuclear weapons, regardless of the nature of any potential agreement.
