London, Britain – An intelligence report published by the British newspaper The Times revealed that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei (86 years old) has prepared a “Plan B” to leave the country and seek refuge in Russia. This is in the event that his security apparatus fails to suppress the escalating wave of protests, or in the event of defections and mutinies within the ranks of the Revolutionary Guard and the army.
A simulation of the “Damascus scenario”
Iran’s escape plan is directly based on the experience of Tehran’s close ally, former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who fled Damascus to Moscow in December 2014, just before the opposition stormed the capital. According to the report, Khamenei sees Russia as his only remaining safe haven in the face of international isolation.
Features of the “alternative plan” according to the report
A narrow circle: The plan includes securing the exit of Khamenei with about 20 members of his family and aides, including his son and presumed heir, Mojtaba Khamenei.
Destination: Moscow; where Khamenei looks with admiration at Russian President Vladimir Putin and sees a cultural affinity that facilitates the asylum process.
Securing the passage: The plan involves liquidating huge financial assets and collecting properties abroad to facilitate “safe passage” and secure a life in exile.
A financial empire to support “leaving”
The report indicated that Khamenei controls a complex financial network known as the “Execution of Imam’s Order Headquarters,” a quasi-governmental institution that manages billions of dollars’ worth of real estate and businesses. According to previous estimates, the total assets under his direct control amount to $95 billion, providing him with ample financial cover to execute his escape plan.
The report also highlighted a “duality” within the ruling elite; prominent aides, such as Ali Larijani, have family members already living in Western capitals like Dubai, Canada, and the United States. This occurs despite their public anti-Western rhetoric.
The security “wall” has cracked
The Supreme Leader relies entirely on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as his executive arm, wielding power that surpasses even that of the military and the courts. However, intelligence assessments indicate that Khamenei’s greatest fear is that the security forces will reach a “breaking point” or refuse to carry out orders to kill protesters en masse. This scenario would immediately trigger his “exit plan” from Tehran.
Beni Sebti: “He has nowhere else to go.”
In a comment to the newspaper, Benny Sabti, an expert on Iranian affairs who previously served in Israeli intelligence, said: “Khamenei will turn to Moscow because there is nowhere else that will accept him. He admires Putin and the way he manages power, and he sees Russia as the last strategic ally that can guarantee his life and the lives of his inner circle.”
