Dubai, United Arab Emirates – Washington described the upcoming meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Alaska, on Friday, as a “listening exercise”.
There were indications that the meeting would not result in an immediate cessation of fighting in Ukraine. However, it could open the door to broad diplomatic shifts.
The summit, which will be held at the Elmendorf–Richardson military base, will witness the presence of prominent figures in the Russian delegation. These include the Ministers of Foreign Affairs, Defense and Finance. Additionally, the head of the sovereign wealth fund will attend.
According to the Kremlin, the talks will address the war in Ukraine. They will also cover trade, economic cooperation, and global security issues.
According to what was published by the American magazine “Newsweek”, there are 4 possible paths to the results of the summit between Trump and Putin.
Decline in the European role
Experts believe that the summit reveals Europe’s dependence on American security guarantees. This comes at a time when European countries find themselves in a position to react to Trump’s moves. Instead of leading initiatives to end the war, they are responding.
Rafael Luce, of the European Council on Foreign Relations, noted that “Kiev’s allies are stuck in a pattern of responding to Trump’s moves rather than shaping diplomatic efforts to end the war”.
He stated, “This shows Europe’s dependence on American security guarantees and favorable trade relations. It also shows that the European Union will be impossible for it to challenge any American-Russian agreement for fear of losing American support”.
The newspaper explained: “After the summit, the leaders of Europe and Ukraine must prepare for Trump’s desire to normalize relations with Russia. They must also prepare for Putin to keep Trump in a circle of vague promises”.
Ending Putin’s isolation
The visit marks Putin’s first appearance in the United States in a decade. This gives him a major political gain despite the international arrest warrant against him.
Newsweek quoted Richard Portes, professor of economics at London Business School, as saying that the picture is “wonderful” of Putin. He is welcomed in the United States despite being an “international war criminal”. This is in reference to the arrest warrant issued against him by the International Criminal Court, which Washington does not recognize.
Yana Kubzova of the European Council on Foreign Relations also believes that the meeting effectively means the end of Putin’s international isolation. He obtains a summit with the US President without making any concessions.
Valerie Sperling of Clark University added that Putin could emerge as a beneficiary of the summit, whatever its outcome. He could portray Zelensky’s refusal to make any concessions as a lack of cooperation.
Neutralizing the American position
Kobzova said Russia’s most favorable outcome would be to “neutralize” the United States on Ukraine. This would involve reducing its involvement in efforts to end the war and halt military aid to Kiev.
The Daily Telegraph reported that Trump may offer Putin economic incentives. This includes opening access to natural resources off the coast of Alaska, which has not been confirmed.
Business opportunities also include minerals in the occupied Ukrainian territories. Other opportunities involve the lifting of US sanctions on the Russian aviation industry, according to the newspaper.
No stop to the war
Trump indicated that a final agreement requires a subsequent meeting that includes Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. However, Kiev rejects any cession of territory to Moscow.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that no joint statement would be issued after the summit. Trump also stressed that another meeting including Zelensky would be necessary before any ceasefire agreement.
Trump indicated the possibility of “exchanging lands” for the benefit of both parties in exchange for a ceasefire. However, Kiev rejects this as violating its constitution.
Vuk Vuksanovich of the London School of Economics said that Russia has no incentives to reach a ceasefire or give up its basic demands. He believes that its field situation is improving over time.
Economist Konstantin Sonin of the University of Chicago said that the summit is unlikely to yield tangible results. This is because “Putin will not reduce his demands, Zelensky is in a difficult position, and if Ukraine abandons its defenses, he will attack Putin again”.
The summit includes a closed session between the two presidents, followed by an expanded meeting, then a working breakfast. It will conclude with a joint press conference.
