Moscow, Russia – Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak acknowledged on Thursday, December 25, 2025, the difficulty of achieving ambitious liquefied natural gas (LNG) production targets on schedule. He announced a postponement of the goal of reaching 100 million tons per year due to restrictions imposed by Western sanctions.
Official acknowledgment of the influence of Western pressure
In an interview with the state television channel Russia-24, Novak stated clearly: “Our goal was to reach 100 million tons per year. It is quite clear that this goal, due to the restrictions related to the sanctions, will be postponed for several more years.”
The previous Russian strategy aimed to reach this figure by 2030. The goal was to raise Moscow’s share of the global market to about 20%, but the sanctions created a time gap in the implementation of major projects.
Production figures for 2025: a slight decline
Novak revealed production forecasts for 2025, estimated at around 33 million tons. This represents a slight decrease compared to 2024 production (34.7 million tons). The Russian official attributed this decline to “extensive maintenance work” at existing facilities.
Challenges of the “Arctic” and tankers
Despite his assertion that liquefied natural gas remains “a key driver for the development of the energy industry,” the reality on the ground presents significant obstacles, most notably:
The Arctic LNG 2 project, developed by Novatek, faced significant difficulties in acquiring specialized (ice-class) gas carriers. These carriers are capable of traversing icy waters. The difficulties stemmed from technological constraints.
A looming European ban: European threats to completely halt imports of Russian liquefied gas by 2027 increase uncertainty in Moscow’s future markets.
Fierce competition: The massive expansion of US exports to Europe, and Qatari control of Asian markets, reduce Russia’s room for maneuver.
Experts estimate: The gap is widening
While Moscow had hoped to break the 100 million-ton barrier by 2030, observers and energy experts now believe that realistic projections are no more than 60 to 70 million tons by the end of this decade. This forecast represents a significant drop from initial plans targeting 105 million tons.
