Voice of the Emirates – In a radical revision of its previous estimates, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued new forecasts indicating that global demand for oil and gas will continue its upward trajectory until the middle of this century. This is due to the slow pace of the transition to green energy and the continued reliance of major economies on fossil fuels.
This shift comes as the agency revives its “current policies” (CPS) scenario, which it had previously abandoned in favor of more optimistic renewable energy models. The agency attributed this revision to changes in U.S. policy, as well as the significant slowdown in electric vehicle adoption outside of China and Europe.
Demand figures and trends, according to the annual “Global Energy Outlook” report, details of which were published by the Wall Street Journal, outlined two main trends:
Current Policies Scenario (CPS):
Global oil demand is projected to rise from 100 million barrels per day in 2024 to 105 million in 2035. It is expected to peak at 113 million barrels per day by 2050. The aviation and petrochemical sectors will be the main drivers of this growth, despite an anticipated decline in coal consumption.
The “Statements of Policy” (STEPS) scenario assumes the implementation of current government promises. It projects peak demand at 102 million barrels per day by 2030 before beginning to decline. However, natural gas demand will continue to grow until the 2030s, driven by the liquefied natural gas (LNG) boom.
Massive investments and high prices: The report emphasized the market’s need for more than 25 million barrels per day of new oil projects by 2035. This is essential to maintaining balance. Higher prices are necessary to incentivize investment in exploration and production.
Climate and security warnings: Despite the growth of renewable energy, the agency warned that the current pace will not be enough to prevent the worst-case climate scenario. The “current policies” scenario projects a rise in global temperatures of approximately 3 degrees Celsius by 2100.
